Polar ice and sea level change – processes and impacts

This is an interdisciplinary seminar, with contributions from glaciology, geodesy, oceanography, geography, social sciences. Initially we focus on the polar areas and study the linkage between the mass balance of ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers and sea level change. We discuss the recent observations of mass loss of Greenland and Antarctica and projections for the large ice sheets. This includes melting and processes leading to dynamic thinning. Glaciers and ice caps are currently the largest cryospheric contribution to sea level rise, thus we will focus on their potential total contribution, the processes and the temporal aspects. Subsequently, the spatial distribution of current and projected sea level change builds the basis for the assessment of the impacts of sea level change. We will focus on the consequences and risks to natural resources and societies for coastal regions, based on an analysis of vulnerability and adaptive capacity for selected regions. One focus will be to identify key sensitivities and impact factors as a function of the sea level, such as affected land and urban area, wetlands and river systems, population and migration, GDP and agricultural production. We will discuss regions which are susceptible to sea-level change (North Sea, Bangladesh, Nile River Delta, Eastern Asia, Florida and Mississippi Delta, Small Island States), which will serve as basis for a comparative assessment. Particular attention will be given to security risks and conflicts. Finally, we will consider potentials for mitigation and adaptation measures and cooperative climate policies on global and regional levels.

After successful completion of the course, students will have acquired …

a) an understanding of
- mass balance of polar ice masses and their contribution to sea level change
- the spatial and temporal scales of sea level change
- processes leading to shrinking ice
- impacts of sea-level change on coastal regions, including small island states
- vulnerability and adaptive capacity of affected societies
- possible response patterns and social interactions.

b) experience in
- assessing the linkages between ice dynamics, climate change and sea level change
- analyzing, comparing and assessing projections of sea level change
- discussing the relevance of sea-level variation on ecosystems and natural resources, griculture and economic systems, populations, social systems and conflict potentials
- analyzing key vulnerable regions
- providing a comparative assessment of regional sensitivities to sea level change
- conducting literature studies
- preparing a scientific presentation and a written summary

The seminar is open to Masters and PhD students with social science and/or physical science backgrounds, including the Master programs in Geophysics, Oceanography, Geography, SICCS and Peace and Security. BSc in any field relevant to the topic of this class.

Literature will be provided in class.

Class notes with presentations of previous sessions are available on a restricted access site.