Climate-Related Disasters, Armed Conflicts and Peace

6 July 2023

Lecture by Dr. Tobias Ide, Murdoch University Perth (Australia), hosted by the CLICCS-B3 project.

Date/location: Thursday July 6, 2023 at 16:15h, in room 022/23 on Bundesstrasse 53

Abstract: The frequency and intensity of disasters like droughts, floods and storms is on the rise because of climate change, urbanisation, and persistent poverty.  Societies with a history of armed violence are particularly vulnerable to such disasters. Recent research has shown that disasters increase the risk of armed conflict and non-violent protest onset, but little is known on how disasters impact the dynamics of already ongoing armed conflicts. In other words: What happens when a disaster strikes a civil war-ridden region? I draw on evidence from 31 civil wars in 21 countries to answer this question. While disasters contribute to the escalation of violence, they can also facilitate conflict de-escalation and hence a temporary increase in (negative) peace. Evidence suggests that while structural conditions like poverty play a role, dynamic factors like shifts in power relations and the communication strategies of the conflict parties are more important to explain armed conflict dynamics after disasters.

Short Bio: Dr. Tobias Ide is Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Murdoch University Perth (Australia) and Specially Appointed Professor for Peace and Sustainability at Hiroshima University (Japan). He holds a PhD in Earth Sciences from the University of Hamburg (2015) and has published widely on the security implications of climate change and environmental change, including in Global Environmental Change, International Security, Journal of Peace Research, and Nature Climate Change. Tobias also frequently works with and consults decision makers, including at the United Nations, NATO, and the Federal Foreign Office. Recently, he won the International Science Prize for Peace and Ecology in the Anthropocene, the ISA Emerging Peace Studies Scholars Awards, and the Award for Enhancing the Environmental Peacebuilding Knowledge Base.